AgPrint: Background

The AgPrint effort begins with an analysis of Maryland’s Resource Lands, which consist of natural resource lands and other resource conservation lands outside of targeted development areas (Priority Funding Areas).  Natural resource lands were defined by the Maryland Department of Natural Resources as areas containing the following ecological resources:

  1. Green Infrastructure
  2. Rare Species Habitats
  3. Aquatic Life Hot Spots
  4. Forests Important for Water Quality Protection

Other resource conservation lands were defined by counties through their zoning classifications, specifically lands that each county has designated for resource conservation and/or agricultural preservation in its zoning language.

The following datasets were used to conduct the analyses

  • Maryland Property View 2006
  • MDP’s Development Capacity Model
  • County Zoning and Sewer Service Data
  • Priority Funding Area Boundaries
  • MDP’s Protected Lands Data

Analysis Parameters

The defined geographies were converted to a 100 acre grid cell network in order to aggregate residential parcel information.  Statistics were calculated within each cell and also for adjacent or surrounding cells (for some parameters).  Areas inside Priority Funding Areas or otherwise outside the boundaries of combined “natural resource” and “other resource conservation” lands were excluded from the analysis.

Next, the land was assessed for the degree to which Maryland’s goals for conservation are being achieved or compromised thus far, and the prognosis for likely long-term outcomes.  The four measures of the assessment are called Status, Vulnerability, Threat, and Land Use Stability.  These measures look at Maryland as a collection of 100-acre squares or “grid cells.”

STATUS

The “Status” of rural resource lands is a measure of the number of residential lots already subdivided on agricultural or natural resource land:

  • Highly Fragmented – More than 5 Residential Lots per 100 Acres
  • Moderately Fragmented – Between 3 and 5 Residential Lots per 100 Acres
  • Largely Un-fragmented – 2 or Fewer Lots per 100 Acres

VULNERABILITY

The “Vulnerability” of rural resource land is a measure of the number of additional residential lots that can be further subdivided and developed under existing local zoning and land use management tools. 

  • High Vulnerability – More than 45 Residential Lots per 900 Acres
  • Moderate Vulnerability – Between 19 and 45 Residential Lots per 900 Acres
  • Limited Vulnerability – Fewer than 18 Residential Lots per 900 Acres

THREAT

The “Threat” to rural resource land is an estimate of potential future market demand for residential lots, estimated by measuring the amounts of residential development that occurred on resource lands during the decade 1997 – 2006, and assuming a similar distribution of county residential growth projected to the year 2030. 

  • High Threat–Pressure for more than 45 Residential Lots per 900 Acres
  • Moderate Threat–Pressure for 18-45 Residential Lots per 900 Acres
  • Low Threat–Pressure for fewer than 18 Residential Lots per 900 Acres

STABILITY

The fourth measure, “Stability of Rural Resource Lands,” to assess the likelihood that the integrity of the land resource can be sustained into the future, assuming aggressive land preservation efforts by the State and local governments. 

  • If land is already highly fragmented by development (Status), many more lots are possible (Vulnerability), and continued significant market demand for residential lots appears likely (Threat), the prognosis for land use stability and conservation success is relatively poor.
  • If land is largely unfragmented by development, very few additional lots are possible, and market demand for residential lots appears likely to remain insignificant, the prognosis for land use stability and conservation success is relatively good.
  • The greater the degree of stabilization, the better the land base is protected from development and the more time provided for preservation, before development excessively compromises the land and resources. 

AgPrint targets certain areas for preservation and set priorities among them, based on the following criteria:

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Targeted Agricultural Areas

  • Parcels that are priorities A, B and C (described below)
  • Certified Priority Preservation Areas
  • Conditionally Certified Priority Preservation Areas
  • Rural Legacy Areas

Priority A, Most Stable
(Light Brown)

  • Relatively unfragmented by development
  • Low vulnerability under zoning
  • Low to high market demand
  • Time for goals before resource is compromised
  • Maximum potential return on public investment
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Priority B, Moderately Stable (Beige)

  • Somewhat fragmented
  • Moderate to high vulnerability
  • Low to high market demand
  • Less time to achieve goals before resource is compromised
  • Moderate potential return on public investment

Priority C, Compromised or At-Risk (Yellow)

  • Highly to somewhat fragmented
  • Moderate to high vulnerability
  • Moderate to high market demand
  • Little or no time for goals to be achieved before resource is compromised
  • Least potential return on public investment